Wood Mackenzie: Falling Birth Rates and Healthcare Demand

Declining birth rates could reshape energy demand patterns over the next few decades in ways that affect public health systems and the resources available to them.

Research from Wood Mackenzie examines how the United Nations' low fertility scenario might alter energy consumption through to 2100. According to Wood Mackenzie, the scenario projects global population peaking at 8.9 billion in 2053 before falling to 7 billion by the century's end.

The UN's central projection places population at 10 billion by 2060. A high fertility scenario sees 12.6 billion people by 2100.

The contrast between these paths carries implications for health infrastructure planning and the energy systems that support hospitals, medical facilities and pharmaceutical production.

Fertility trends accelerate downward

According to the UN, global fertility stood at 2.6 births per woman in 2007. By 2025 that figure reached 2.2, approaching the 2.1 replacement rate needed to maintain stable population levels.

China recorded a birth rate of 5.6 per 1,000 people in 2025, the lowest figure the country has measured. The population contracted by 3.4 million last year to 1.4 billion, some 9.6 million below what the UN projected in 2024.

Peter Martin, Head of Economics at Wood Mackenzie, says the energy sector should incorporate major population decline into planning models. "Demographics dictate destiny," he says.

"Shrinking workforces mean slower GDP growth, with direct consequences for energy demand. This is not a tail risk. It belongs in the core scenario of every long-range model the industry relies on."

Ageing populations place additional strain on healthcare budgets and workforce planning. Fewer working-age adults could mean less tax revenue to fund public health systems at a time when demand for elder care and chronic disease management continues to climb.

Energy consumption patterns shift

According to Wood Mackenzie, global primary energy consumption could rise 8% from current levels, peaking at 717 exajoules in 2035 before declining to 672 exajoules by 2060. An exajoule equals one quintillion joules and measures energy use at national or global scale.

Electricity demand tells a different story, with consumption projected to double over the same timeframe. Healthcare facilities depend on stable electricity supply for diagnostic equipment, surgical theatres, refrigerated medication storage and data systems.

Global population would still grow by around 700 million people by 2060 even under the low fertility scenario. Unmet energy needs across Asia and Africa, combined with higher incomes and continued deployment of renewables and artificial intelligence infrastructure, could sustain demand growth regardless of birth rate trends.

The UN World Population Prospects report due in July 2026 may prompt revised projections across multiple sectors. Wood Mackenzie does not expect full adoption of the low fertility scenario but notes that any downward revision carries economic weight given the fiscal pressure from ageing populations.

Workforce decline drives automation

A smaller workforce creates stronger incentives for automation across industries including healthcare. Medical robotics, AI-assisted diagnostics and automated laboratory systems all require electricity and minerals even as demand for oil and gas moderates.

Prakash Sharma, Head of Energy Transition at Wood Mackenzie, says resource implications remain substantial. "A lower population does not diminish the draw on critical minerals," he says.

"Electrification, renewables and AI adoption create unprecedented demand for those resources while accelerating the structural shift away from hydrocarbons. The capital exists now. The question is whether governments move decisively enough to deploy it before the window narrows after 2060."

Hospitals increasingly adopt automated supply chain systems, AI-enhanced imaging analysis and robotic surgical tools. These technologies could help offset labour shortages in nursing and allied health professions but require substantial electricity infrastructure and mineral inputs for batteries and semiconductors.

Population decline and emissions

Some analysts view slowing fertility as potentially easing pressure on infrastructure and supply chains. Energy companies have worked to match demand from data centres and electrification, straining grid capacity in multiple regions.

A plateau in demand growth could allow more deliberate capacity planning. There is also an environmental dimension, as fewer people could in principle mean lower resource consumption and reduced aggregate emissions.

Most experts caution against treating population decline as a pathway to decarbonisation. Zeke Hausfather, a Climatologist working at the Breakthrough Institute, says consumption patterns matter more than headcount.

"Sometimes people try to use population as a way to let rich countries off the hook," he says, "whereas in reality, it's our consumption and our level of economic activity that drives emissions more than the number of people we have."

Ajit Niranjan, the Guardian's European Environment Correspondent, notes that people in the richest countries emit around 50 times more than those in the poorest nations. Population growth concentrates in lower-emitting regions.

A smaller global population might slow emissions growth but would not solve the problem outright. It could also complicate transition economics by reducing the workforce and tax base needed to fund new energy systems and the healthcare infrastructure those systems support.

Whether falling fertility eases planning challenges or creates new ones may depend less on total population and more on what energy and health systems are built to serve them.